Aston Villa beat Derby in the 2018/19 Championship Play off final to win promotion to the Premier League.

With not a lot of previous form to judge, instead we need to look ahead at who may play key roles in trying to keep Villa in the Premier league.

What can we expect for the 2019-20 season?

Aston Villa have spent big already this summer and if further speculation is to be believed, they are going to continue to do so.

Tyrone Mings (£4.5) was purchased on the back of a very successful season for Aston Villa last year. His time at Bournemouth was injury hit and as such he has only actually scored 13 FPL points across 4 seasons! If Villa are to stay up, they will need clean sheets and given his importance last year, you’d expect Mings to play a big part in that. His return of 2 goals last year is one he will look to better this year.

Wesley (£6.0) cost Aston Villa a reported £22 Million pounds this summer. The Big 6 foot 3, 22 year old will be hoping to get among the goals as Tammy Abraham did for this team last year. His record in Belgium averaged a goal every 3 games for Club Brugge but given the money spent, you’d think this guy will start a lot of Games for Villa. He is likely to need to score important goals if Villa are to have a good season. Current 2nd choice Kodija managed 9 goals in 22 appearances last year and valued at £5.5 could easily be transferred in should Wesley not hit the ground running.

It wouldn’t be an Aston Villa write up if we didn’t consider Jack Grealish (6.0). The mercurial number 10 was at the heartbeat of everything Villa did well last year and from the Villa faithful who watch him week in week out he was even being touted for an England call up. Arguably however, he was outshone by a fellow midfielder Conor Hourihane. He managed 8 goals and 11 assists in 35 starts for Villa (compared to 6 goals 7 assists in 34 for Grealish) and with both midfielders costing the same it could be a dilemma for FPL Managers.

When should FPL Managers expect Aston Villa to pick up the most points?

Dean Smith will be looking at the following weeks to try and accumulate those 40 points needed to stay in the league:

GWs 2-5, 7-9, 16-21.

Naturally they do have other games but given they are in isolation it wouldn’t be prudent for managers to plan for just one game week.

Next up…..Bournemouth

Arsenal finished the 2018-19 season in 5th position winning 21 of their 38 league games.

A lot of focus for FPL managers was on Aubameyang and Lacazatte, and with good reason. They were 2 of only 3 players for Arsenal to get to 3 figures with the other being the GK!

What can we expect for the 2019-20 season?

Unai Emery is yet to make a marquee signing and with a rumoured transfer budget of £45M this may not happen at all for the Gunners. As is stands they are priced out of a move for Wilfred Zaha (Currently £7.0 MID on FPL) and to compound issues the club captain Laurent Koscielny has refused to join them on the pre season tour.

This could be a breakthrough season for Reiss Nelson. The 19 year old scored 7 goals in 19 appearances for Hoffenheim last season and would add some much needed pace and imagination to the Arsenal attack. He is (suprisingly!) not yet listed on FPL but i can only assume this will be a matter of time and if listed as a midfielder I certainly think he is one worth a risk when Arsenal have those favourable fixtures.

Before Rob Holding sustained his injury last season he was performing consistently at the heart of that Arsenal defence. He is priced at only £4.5M and on return from his injury could be a good option against the “lesser” teams to get those clean sheets points on the board.

With the release of Petr Cech, Bernd Leno is now firmly established as Arsenal’s No.1. As mentioned, he scored over 100 points last year and I would expect more this year given that Cech did play games at the start of last year.

Lacazette / Aubameyang – If you’re looking for an Arsenal player, you’ll want one of these guys. Auba at £1.5M more does provide more of a risk, BUT he did score 39 points more than Laca last year and id expect him to be Arsenal’s main goal threat once again.

When should FPL managers expect Arsenal players to pick up the most points?

Barring the odd fixture in between, Arsenal players should be expected to excel Between GW’s 8 -16 & 22-32.

Either Auba or Laca are surely a must during those periods!?

As mentioned in one of my previous posts, I am also considering the use of the Arsenal & Spurs fixture rotations to use Bernd Leno for the duration.

If Zaha happens, he to will need to enter calculations….

Next Team Focus……Aston Villa

A profile to consider whether Rodri(5.5m) should be considered for one of those midfield places.

I have read numerous articles saying this guy is the new Fernandinho, also drawing comparisons to Busquets, so clearly this lad has bags of talent. Typically however, that “No. 4” role in any team may struggle to score big FPL points.

If Rodri starts for the Cityzens then he would expect to pick up 2 points for playing 90 mins, plus 1 point for a clean sheet. 3 Goals and 1 assist in 34 games in 2018/19 for Athletico Madrid tell us his potential for higher points may not be fulfilled.

In that similar role over the past 6 season, Fernandinho has scored 105 (2013/14), 95 (2014/15), 90 (2015/16), 78 (2016/17), 120 (2017/18) and 79 (2018/19). Similarly Gundogan in his two full seasons has only scored 82 (2017/18) and 113 (2018/19).

By comparison, McArhtur (CRY), Moutinho (WOL) and Kante (CHE) all scored more points that Gundogan last year and cost the same or less than Rodri (5.5m).

Despite this position being vital to the possession based football Man City like to play, looking at the stats historically, it isn’t one that will yield managers large points rewards.

Factor in also that most managers will want a combination of Ederson, Walker, Laporte, Sterling, B Silva, Aguero and many won’t be able to make room for the clubs record signing anyway.

Verdict: Very good player, but not one for a successful FPL manager.

The keener #FF players will now have re registered their teams and started to plan their way to success.

Following the principles from my previous posts, below is my first draft based on teams fixtures for the first 1-8 game weeks.

Whilst the temptation remains to double up on Liverpool defenders, for the time being I have opted against this. Both TAA and Robertson are £7M and I feel saving budget for my front three will prove more beneficial.

If you are doubling up, consider Gomez or Matip? (Both £5.5M) Its just a gamble on who you think will partner VVD and bank those clean sheet points.

Mane / Salah was arguably my biggest deliberation, and with the AFCON also affecting their start to the season, they are very much “watch this space”. Origi feels a no brainer at this point given he’s on a sunbed whilst the others are yet to enjoy a break.

Kane’s opening run of fixtures together with a full summer off (including his marriage) will stand him in good stead to make a fast start in the race for this years golden boot.

Ready, Set, Go….

A LOOK AT THE BEST GK OPTIONS TO START YOUR SEASON

Anyone else eager for the upgrade to start planning for 2019/20 as yet?……Yeah, me too!

In my previous notes, I had analysed the fixtures and commented on which teams had the better fixtures to maximize managers fantasy football points.

The Goalkeepers who need to enter your calculations…..

ALLISON – LIVERPOOL

An obvious, but very credible candidate who almost guarantees managers clean sheets in the opening weeks.

Manager Consideration: Will he score more points than the Liverpool defenders who offer threat going forward, as well as those clean sheet bonuses?

EDERSON – MAN CITY

Again, a keeper highlighted for having good fixtures, in which possession dominant city will be very surprised to concede against.

Manager Consideration: Can you make room for the goalkeeper of Man City given the undoubted draw towards Aguero, Sterling, De Bruyne, Silva etc…

LLORIS – TOTTENHAM

Tottenham’s first 8 games will blow very hot and cold for managers. Home games against Aston Villa, Newcastle, Palace and Southampton pose a very good opportunity for clean sheet points. However with games against Man City, Arsenal and Leicester on the road, Spurs may struggle to keep the ball out of their own net when away from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Manager Consideration: Do any teams have easier games when you wouldn’t want to have Hugo in goal? A Solution……

LENO – ARSENAL

Have a look at Arsenal’s first 8 games. Removing the Spurs game, they have winnable games at home when Tottenham are against tougher opponents.

Final Verdict: Whilst Ederson and Allison will undoubtedly get clean sheets in the first 8 weeks, if you already have your quota of 3 from those teams consider the Lloris / Leno interchange to get yourself some points on the board. If you wanted to give yourself a chance of a clean sheet in GW4, a short term fix would be Kepa (Chelsea) who has a home game against Sheff Utd.

Hot off the press with the fixtures now released, time to take a look at which teams have those supposed “easier” games.

Looking at the fixtures from gameweeks 1-8 I suspect most managers will opt for the “familiar faces”.

Man City and Liverpool look to have a good run of games and i think even the most pessimistic fan would expect 6 victories from those first 8 games.

Liverpool play two of the newly promoted teams in that period, and start with arguably the most eye catching fixture for fantasy football managers with a GW1 fixture against a newly promoted side (Norwich). Expect Salah to be a front runner for captain.

Man City’s start is to welcome ‘the Hammers’ to the Etihad. Maximum returns will also be expected, and last seasons top league scorers will hope to get the ball rolling (no pun intented) once again.

BEST OF THE REST

Tottenham start the season against another of the newly promoted clubs (Villa), and whilst they do play Man City and Arsenal in the first 4 game weeks, I’d expect them to win all 4 home games (GWs 1,3,5 & 7) so a good return should be available from Harry Kane and Co.

Aston Villa are my “wildcard” pick to start the season well. Once they get the Spurs game out of the way they have a home double header of Bournemouth and Everton which are games I’m sure Dean Smith will look to get points on the board from. Jack Grealish may finally live up to the hype.

Something to whet the #FF appetite for you all anyway….

INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS IN THE OPENING GAMEWEEKS

With the fixtures due to be released on Thursday (13th) what should FPL managers be looking for?

Let me ask this opening question, how many times in the last few seasons have you started poorly and immediately rushed to use your ‘wildcard’?

For many managers, a poor start can lead to panic, bad decision making or a complete loss of interest all together.

Use of the “Fixture Difficulty Rankings” provided by FPL is a must. Clubs with alleged “easier games” need to be targeted, and players selected based on clean sheet, assists or goal scoring potential.

If this type of planning can be done for the first 6-8 Gameweeks, with a few carefully planned transfers along the way based on form, change in fixtures etc… you will be well on your way for a successful season.

That isn’t to say you will always select the right player, but at least you’re giving yourself a chance….